All organizations simultaneously raised their forecast for US economic growth in 2021
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast of US economic growth for the second time this month after the disclosure of President-elect Joe Biden about the stimulus package of 1,900 billion USD.
|Goldman Sachs forecasts US economic growth will reach 6.6% by 2021. Photo: AFP|
In a report published on January 16, Goldman Sachs forecasts the US economy will grow 6.6% in 2021, higher than the forecast of 6.4%. before. The bank also raised its forecast of the stimulus package that the Biden administration will deploy in the term to $ 1,100 billion, from $ 750 billion.
US President-elect Joe Biden on January 14 announced a fiscal stimulus package called “American Rescue Plan” worth $ 1,900 billion, and emphasized that it must invest heavily to restart the economy. US economy and promoting vaccine distribution to control the Covid-19 epidemic. According to this stimulus package, the US government will deploy the support to households and businesses in the US until the vaccine is widely distributed. The “American Rescue Plan” also includes checks and unemployment benefits for citizens.
Analysts of Goldman Sachs said that the growth driver in 2021 of the US mainly comes from disposable income and increased US government spending at the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal also raised their forecast of US economic growth to 4.3%, instead of the previous 3.7% increase. In a January survey by the Wall Street Journal, economists rated the US economic outlook brighter thanks to the ongoing vaccination program and financial assistance for American people and businesses the upcoming fiscal stimulus package of the US government.
Due to the heavy impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, economists forecast a 2.5 percent decline in the US economy in 2020. About two-thirds of economists surveyed said vaccines. Resistance to Covid-19 will boost US economic growth significantly in 2021, while a third of experts say that vaccines only help stimulate the US economy to grow modestly.
“There is no vaccine, there is no recovery,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the audit and tax advisory firm RSM US LLP. This expert said that the discovery of a vaccine against Covid-19 could release more than $ 1 trillion in savings, and at the same time relieve pent-up demand.
According to the non-profit Conference Board forecasts, the real GDP growth of the US is estimated at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 2.0% in the first quarter of 2021 after falling into a severe recession in the first half. 2020. This organization forecasts that the US economy is estimated to grow 4.1% in 2021 after a 3.5% recession in 2020.
The Conference Board points out five main factors that will determine the US economic recovery in 2021, including: the size of the Covid-19 outbreak and anti-epidemic measures; results of the implementation of the vaccine distribution and vaccination program; size and timing of the fiscal stimulus package; the situation of labor and household consumption; the impact of the transition of power in America on the confidence of American consumers and businesses.
The US Department of Commerce plans to publish the report on US economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the whole year 2020 on January 28.