The Banque de France published Tuesday, February 9, 2021, its estimates and conclusions on economic activity and French growth. She estimates that in January 2021, the level of economic activity is still 5% lower than before the crisis.
Stable economic activity in January 2021
According to the economic outlook published on Tuesday, February 9, 2021 by the Banque de France, French economic activity stabilized in January 2021. However, it remains 5% below the pre-pandemic level. In its economic report, the Banque de France revised upwards the level of activity for the months of November and December 2020 respectively 7% and 5%.
François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France estimates that for the year 2021 French growth would be 5%. Growth estimated at 5% in 2021 by the Banque de France and 6% by Insee. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies estimated that in its forecasts that the 6% growth in French GDP in 2021 desired by the government was still a goal that could be achieved.
A heterogeneous economic activity
Unsurprisingly, the Banque de France believes that economic activity is suffering from a ” strong heterogeneity between sectors “. So, hotels, restaurants and culture are very weak due to health restrictions which affect them more strongly than others and forced them to close. Other sectors, on the other hand, have very strong economic activity, such as ” business services are well oriented, in particular advertising and management advice, as well as equipment and car rental ” .
However, the Governor of the Banque de France estimates that if economic activity is once again likely to be 5% below the pre-crisis level, consumer loyalty is a good sign of hope. François Villeroy de Galhau recalls the massive return of consumers when shops reopened last summer ” But we saw it last summer and then in December: as soon as restrictions were lifted, the return of consumers and their confidence has been spectacular “.