Covid-19: reconfinement in Italy … like a feeling of déjà vu

Third wave or not third wave? That is the question. And everyone is wondering: government, scientists and, of course, citizens. Because third wave would mean Containment 3, and nobody wants it. But the announcement by Italy of a re-containment has something to fear for the worst.

Italy is reconfiguring … almost a year exactly after the first confinement

On Monday March 15, 2021, half of the Italian regions are re-confined, and the other half semi-confined. At issue: the increase in the number of cases in the peninsula which looks like a third wave: between January 2021 and March 2021, the number of cases in 24 hours doubled from around 15,000 to just under 30,000.

For Italians, it’s a double penalty: the bars and restaurants were able to reopen, while the good weather is back, just like the mild temperatures. And it is a very bad memory that is remembered to them.

In March 2020, to be precise on March 10, 2020, Italy was the first European country to announce generalized confinement of its entire population. in the face of the pandemic. A year later, it is therefore the return of confinement.

Reconfinement still threatens the French

The French will remember, for their part, that Emmanuel Macron announced the confinement a few days after Italy. Italian re-containment can therefore be very bad news: it could, as in 2020, give a trend that will be adopted by other countries.

But the Italian and French situations differ: the third Italian wave could have been caused by the reopening of bars and restaurants, which the French government opposed. It nevertheless occurred despite the vaccine, with France and Italy being relatively close in terms of vaccination rates, which means that vaccination is not enough to avoid it.

On the case side, Italy experienced, at the start of 2021, a lower number of cases per day than France, between 10,000 and 15,000, where France has stagnated at around 20,000. If there is an increase in cases in France (today between 25,000 and 30,000), it is less clear than in Italy where the number has doubled, which seems to exclude a third wave in France on March 15, 2021.