Vaccination campaigns in the European Union are progressing less quickly than in other countries, notably in the United Kingdom where more than 11 million people, or 17% of the population, have been vaccinated. France, for example, has vaccinated only 2.79% of its population, a level close to that of most EU countries. However, according to the insurer Euler Hermes, the final bill for the European economy will be very expensive.
Delays will keep certain activities closed
The calculation of the Euler Hermes firm is, in fact, quite simple: in its study, it analyzed the economic impact of delayed vaccination, assuming that they increase the length of time certain parts of the business are closed. , like tourism. A logical calculation: ski resorts, for example, are heading towards a blank year for winter 2020-2021 in France and almost everywhere else in Europe. For France, this is a loss of 10 billion euros in turnover for the sector.
But restaurants will also suffer from these delays, such as the tourism sector in general, museums, culture … as long as the vaccination has not reached a certain level, in fact, reopening can only be sporadic or partial, preventing companies from creating wealth. And for the European Union, ultimately, that will come at a cost.
0.4% of GDP lost … every week
Euler Hermes has therefore calculated the cost of closing these activities for the European economy and it is expensive: 0.4% of GDP per week, or 1.6% of GDP per month. At European level, the bill will therefore be steep.
Euler Hermes estimates, in the study, that Europe has already accumulated five weeks of delay, that is to say a decrease of 2% of the GDP. The equivalent, therefore, of 90 billion euros at European level. But the situation could worsen if the delay accumulates, just as it could improve if the delay is caught up. It will be up to the public authorities as well as to the pharmaceutical laboratories to distribute the vaccines to ensure that the bill goes down.