While the AstraZeneca vaccine has once again received the green light from the European Medicines Agency but deliveries are late, the rating agency Fitch Rating simply believes that the management of the vaccine campaign will weigh on the growth of the euro zone. It is the only major economic zone not to see its growth forecasts revised upwards.
Global growth expected by Fitch at 6.1%
The publication, on March 17, 2021, of the latest forecasts from Fitch Ratings as part of its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) mainly brings good news. For starters, the global recession in 2020 will have finally been a little less severe: it is revised downwards by 0.3%, to fall to 3.4%. It’s still so historic, but it means that the world will take a little less time to return to its pre-crisis economic level.
Especially since, at the same time, Fitch Rating announces a second good news: compared to the GEO of December 2020, the agency has revised upwards its global growth estimates for 2021 and now expects 6.1%, or 0.8% more. More growth in 2021 and less recession in 2020, that’s reassuring.
USA and China will do better than expected in 2021 …
The two largest economic powers in the world, the United States and China, have also seen their growth forecasts revised upwards by Fitch Ratings, compared to the GEO of December 2020. For the United States, growth is expected to reach 6.2%, revised sharply since it was only expected at 4.5% previously. This is all the more good news as the recession in the country will only be 3.5% in 2020.
But the big winner from the crisis is undoubtedly China. In addition to having managed to maintain positive growth (2.3%) in 2020, the country sees its forecasts for 2021 also being revised upwards from 8% to 8.4%.
… but growth in the euro zone is stagnating
For the euro zone, on the contrary, Fitch Ratings is not seeing the best, but not the worst either. In its GEO of March 2021, the agency maintains its growth forecast for 2021 unchanged at 4.7%. In question, the vaccination which had ” a slower start », Underlines Fitch.
Nevertheless, if in 2021 the euro zone will have fallen behind, growth in 2022 should allow it to compensate for it. It should be 4.5%, according to Fitch’s forecast for March 2021, is similar to that of 2021, while for the United States and China it will drop sharply, to 3.3% and 5.5% respectively.