In February 2021, as in January, according to data published by the Banque de France, the production of new housing loans is much lower than it was at the start of 2020. In February, it is down by 27% compared to the same period in 2020 (after – 21% in January) … At the start of the year, the credit market – and more generally real estate – is less dynamic than it ‘was last year, even if the month of March should be a game-changer thanks to the possibility of continuing visits to real estate, unlike the 1st confinement in March 2020, which had put the market completely to a standstill.
A 27% drop in loan production in February!
In February, according to data published in early April by the Banque de France, the production of new housing loans came to 18.6 billion euros, after 18.4 billion in January. But if we compare to its level of February 2020 when it reached its highest level of the year at 25.6 billion euros (a record since April 2017), it is down 27.3%. Admittedly, the start of 2020 had been particularly dynamic, thanks to strong demand at the end of 2019, but also many credit renegotiation files. However, excluding renegotiation, taking into account only credits linked to transactions, the decline remains nearly 15% (15.5 billion in February 2021, against 18.1 billion a year ago).
We note that the year 2021 has a weaker start than in 2020 over the first two months of the year. The year 2020 was marked by a very dynamic start in the first quarter linked to a very strong demand for loans and renegotiations, and significant delays in the processing of files at the end of 2019, processed only at the beginning of 2020. However, in March, this dynamic was brought to a halt with the arrival of the first confinement in mid-March, while this year, activity continues, both in terms of visits to goods and the processing of credit applications. The months of March and April 2021 should be much better compared to last April, a month during which the production of new loans fell to 10 billion euros excluding renegotiations.
Slightly lower credit rates than a year ago …
In April 2021, average rates are 1.05% over 15 years, 1.25% over 20 years and 1.45% over 25 years but we can obtain at best 0.55% 15 years, 0.80% over 20 years and 1% over 25 years, rates close to the historical records of the end of 2019.
“While in February 2020 some banks told us that they had already achieved more than a third of their credit production targets, this year, the lower dynamism of the market means that, on the contrary, most banks are still in the process of conquering of clientele in this real estate spring. This is why, in January and February, many again lowered their mortgage rates and slightly relaxed their criteria for granting credit, while remaining vigilant on the profiles financed, given the economic uncertainties ” analysis Julie Bachet, Managing Director of Vousfinancer.