Investments in industrial sectors will pick up sharply in 2021, after some spectacular declines last year. The morale of business leaders is at its highest.
After a catastrophic year 2020 in terms of investments, the heads of manufacturing industries surveyed by INSEE have recovered. The balance of opinion on the evolution of investment for the first six months rebounded to +14, after +3 last July. The balance exceeds its long-term average (set at +4), its highest level since 2011. ” Many more manufacturing business leaders expect their investment to rise rather than fall in the first half of 2021 », Explains INSEE. It will be difficult to do worse than last year, during which investments plunged 13% in value. We have to go back to 2009 for an even lower level: during the financial crisis, investments fell by 21%…
The epidemic is still not over and it will take several months for the vaccination campaign to produce its effects before returning to a certain normality. Despite everything, business leaders are optimistic. In all sectors, manufacturers are indeed forecasting a strong recovery in their investments: estimates stand at 10% growth in value (6 points more than the previous forecast made last October). As always, some sectors will do well. This will be the case for the manufacture of capital goods with investments up 25% over the year as a whole, compared with the contraction of 9% in 2020.
Business leaders have morale
In the food industry, the increase will be 9% (against -6% last year), as in the textile, chemical, pharmaceutical and metallurgy industries where investments had dropped by 12 % in 2020. The automotive sector will benefit from an increase in investments of 5%, which will not be enough to compensate for the decline of 15% last year. This will also be the case for the manufacture of transport equipment, which is content with 3% growth in investment, after a drop of 23% in 2020.