It’s a bit like the endless day of the groundhog.
We start again.
Again and again.
Since the start of this pandemic, monitoring what is happening in Israel has been a very relevant leading indicator.
Because it is a small country, hot, dry, whose borders are largely guarded and easily “lockable”, having as well an excellent medical system as a system of research or innovation of cutting edge.
One of the first lessons that we could learn from the observation of the Israeli situation, is that the coronavirus would certainly not be defeated by the heat of the sun and by the summer.
One of the second is on closing borders. This is obviously necessary because it considerably slows down the arrival of new patients and mutants, but, it is not perfect and even in the Israeli environment, it takes all the organization of this state to achieve a real closure. I let you imagine in France the difficulty of going so far and being so efficient. Our strategy cannot in the short term be based only on the closure of borders, which is otherwise necessary.
Finally, Israel by its small size and its ability to negotiate and purchase is the most advanced country in immunization, and yet, despite this state of affairs, the news is not really good as shown in this article from Time of Israel.
What does this article tell us?
That “the number of virus cases could increase again, according to the task force; official warns of fourth lockdown
Trends show a decline in the average age of severe patients; the health ministry asks Netanyahu to extend the national confinement at least until after the weekend ”.
That mortality remains at a very high level.
That vaccination seems to produce its first effects in older people who have been vaccinated as a priority and therefore the average age of people hospitalized is falling and increasingly younger, which seems logical.
That the number of cases remains worrying as well as the number of deaths.
” Channel 12, citing figures from the Ministry of Health, reported that during the month of January there was a steady increase in the number of critically ill patients between the ages of 20 and 49. In contrast, among people over 60, who were given priority to receive the vaccine, the number increased during the first half of the month, then stabilized and, more recently, decreased slightly.“.
A 4th confinement on the table!
“Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of public health services at the Ministry of Health, warned that the current lockdown, the country’s third since the start of the pandemic, may not be the last.
“In the coming weeks, we will know if there will be a fourth confinement”, she told Kan public broadcaster.
She said that in order to achieve herd immunity with the new mutated strains, at least 80% of the population must be immunized, either by vaccination or by recovery from COVID-19.
“We are currently around 25%, which is wonderful, but we are far from it,” Ms. Regev-Yochay said.
On Monday, Regev-Yochay said Israel and the world should live in the shadow of the coronavirus for a long time, as herd immunity would likely require children to be vaccinated, which is not currently possible since they have been excluded from vaccine trials.
Department of Health officials have warned of a widespread reopening of schools, citing the high number of infections in children and saying reopening the education system will drop the prevalence of the UK strain of the virus from the current 70% 90% of all new infections.
If the virus variants continue to mutate and become immune to current vaccines, an additional third dose may be needed in the future to inoculate against these strains, coronavirus specialist Tsar Ash said on Monday at a briefing. hurry. He noted that this option was not immediately relevant, but could be considered later.
Containment + vaccinations + masks and distancing!
This is what emerges from this article.
This is the future that seems to be promised to the Israelis until the country achieves collective immunity, but, you will notice, the country has a strategy.
Vaccinations, border closures with a tight lockdown, successive confinements with currently closed schools, not to mention masks and distancing in order to achieve collective immunity as quickly as possible while knowing now that it will be necessary to plan to manage the arrival of variants which will require adaptation of the vaccine strategy.
Economically, Israel has the means for its ambitions and its health policy since the public debt / GDP ratio should reach its maximum in 2023, at around 80%, against 76% in 2020 and 60% in 2019.
Where we are in France almost at 130% debt to GDP it is only 76% in Israel.
This clearly shows how France no longer has the financial means for containment, whether for a 3rd or a 4th.
It also shows that we are going to have to develop a radically different strategy, because we do not have the same geography, not the same financial means.
The conclusion will nevertheless be common.
Whatever we do, whatever we think, we will have to learn to live with these viruses, and living is not staying locked up until the end of time.
It is already too late, but all is not lost. Prepare yourselves !