The President of the Republic, who against all expectations has decided not to reconfine the French during the February holidays and even to let them move, seems to be fed up with being said that the vaccination campaign in France is slow. He has even now made a promise to the French … who will not fail to remind him when the deadline is approaching.
A vaccine for everyone at the end of summer
Guest of TF1’s newscast, Tuesday February 2, 2021, Emmanuel Macron launches a promise: “ By the end of the summer, we will have offered all French adults who want a vaccine “. A strong message sent to the French, and to its detractors: This would mean that at the start of the 2021 school year, this pandemic would not only be under control, but that life could resume as before.
However, there is still some way to go… and millions of people to be vaccinated. According to the latest surveys, around 60% of the French adult population want the vaccine. Knowing that there are just over 53 million people aged 18 or over in France in 2021, this therefore represents 31.8 million people vaccinated.
However, since two doses of vaccine are needed for the acquired immunity to be effective, France must, by the end of the summer, have distributed around 63 million doses.
Is Emmanuel Macron’s promise tenable?
As of February 32, 2021, according to the CovidTracker site, France has fully vaccinated (both doses) only 67,993 people, while 1.54 million people have received their first dose. Also according to the site, nearly 68,000 doses were distributed in 24 hours.
However, there are 210 days left before “the end of summer”, if we understand it as the end of the summer vacation, around 230 if we understand it as the end of the “summer” season on September 21. The calculation is therefore quickly done.
So that Emmanuel Macron’s promise is kept, France will have to reach an average of 300,000 doses distributed per day, Sundays included, from the beginning of February. This is not impossible, even if the delays accumulate: on January 21, 2021, more than 140,000 doses were distributed, a daily record to date. And the vaccination campaign is far from at its cruising speed.
From a logistical point of view, therefore, Emmanuel Macron’s promise should not be a problem to be kept. Only unknown, which does not depend on France, the production and reception of the doses.