The oil market is likely to fluctuate unpredictably in the next few months, as oil demand in the second half of the year will reverse sharply due to economic activity accelerating.
In its monthly market report released on March 11, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) evaluated the outlook for economic growth as well as the oil demand increase again this year, in the context of many countries. vaccination against COVID-19 is underway and a wave of fiscal stimulus is in place.
According to OPEC’s forecast, the global demand for oil will increase by about 200,000 barrels / day and the global economy will grow 5.1% thanks to the US $ 1,900 billion COVID-19 bailout bill that was just approved by US President Joe. Biden signed for promulgation and many economies in Asia continued to recover.
According to OPEC, the oil market is likely to fluctuate unpredictably in the next few months, when oil demand in the second half of the year will turn up sharply thanks to economic activity accelerating after the pandemic is basically under control. .
Currently, the price of crude oil has increased by more than 80% compared to the record low time at the end of October 2020 and is still increasing in recent weeks. This week, oil prices also fluctuated widely, causing some analysts to believe that the recovery of “black gold” is starting to heat up.
Previously, wealthy countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reduced their January crude oil reserves to a level that was close to the average for 2015-2019, due to All three oil producing regions of the world reduce their supply.
However, the recent increase in oil prices may cause some non-OPEC oil producing countries such as the US, Canada, Russia and Norway to increase supplies to 1 million barrels / day this year. There are already some signs that US oil production will soon recover to near pre-pandemic levels.
OPEC forecasts that demand for crude oil of this organization this year will increase by 4.9 million barrels / day. Although it cannot offset last year’s decline of 6.9 million barrels / day, this is still a positive outlook.