Two weeks ago in these columns, I was worried about the possible financial consequences of uncertainties on vaccine results. The current evolution of the prices of Pfizer and Astra-Zeneca unfortunately confirms my comments with, in the last month, a ten percent drop in the prices of the two champions of the Covid vaccines.
Anticovid vaccines represent a potential market of hundreds of billions of dollars, but this market will only fulfill its promises if the effects of the vaccines live up to the expectations raised by the media.
Disturbing results of the Pfizer vaccine in Israel (1) (2)
The Pfizer vaccine vaccination campaign began on 12/20/2020 and the Israeli government achieved the feat of vaccinating more than 4 million of its citizens in two months, but the current results are very worrying.
Based on WHO data, published on https://covid19.who.int/ Daily incidence and mortality have exploded in Israel since the vaccination.
The daily number of new cases increased from 2,792 on December 20, 2020 to 4,800 on February 19, 2021.
Daily mortality attributed to Covid fell from 18 on 20 December 2020 to 29 on 27/2/21.
Despite the pursuit of reinforced containment, the month of january set the all-time high for monthly mortality (1,433 deaths, i.e. a third of the overall mortality since the start of the epidemic) and daily (69).
Worrying results from vaccination in Great Britain (3)
Great Britain is the second country in the vaccination race which began on December 4 with the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech supplemented in January by the vaccine from Astra Zeneca. Since that date, just over 13 million people have been vaccinated in the UK, including 25% of adults and over 90% of those over 75.
Since then, the number of daily infections has increased from 14,898 on December 4 to 68,063 on January 9, 2021, slowly returning to pre-vaccination figures
And unfortunately the daily Covid19 mortality has also exploded with an increase of almost 300% (414 on December 4 versus 1,564 on January 14) to slowly return to a level higher than that observed in the week preceding the vaccination campaign.
In addition, the vaccination of older people most at risk has been met with many serious complications and deaths which have prompted an alert to the WHO by the Norwegian health agency, and in many countries to restrictions on the vaccination. use of vaccines for those over 65 (despite those who would be the priority targets).
Paradoxical results in the United Arab Emirates (4)
The United Arab Emirates represent the Arab champion of vaccination with more than 40% of its population vaccinated since December 23, 2020. The vaccination campaign has been generous including all residents regardless of their nationality. But the observed evolution of contamination and mortality is the opposite of what was hoped for.
According to the WHO curves for February 27, 2021, the vaccination was followed by a considerable increase (+ 200%) in daily contaminations, their number rising from 1226 cases on 23/12 to 3498 on 27/2. Number greatly exceeding records at the height of the epidemic of the previous wave (1,709 cases on May 19, 2020) despite the current containment.
Before vaccination and after nine months of epidemic, the UAE had 195,818 contaminations. In two months post-vaccination, this figure rose to 385,160 (+ 100%). This very unfavorable development after vaccination, with a considerable increase in daily contaminations, suggests that the vaccine is incapable of reducing the transmission of the disease.
The fall in contamination that has started since February could lead people to believe in the effectiveness of vaccination after six weeks, but this decrease in the daily number of infections has only been observed since the global ebb of the epidemic in all countries. , vaccinated or not, confined or not.
Evolution of daily mortality
In the United Arab Emirates, despite containment, vaccination was followed by a considerable increase in daily mortality from 3 on December 23, 2020, to 20 on February 23, 2021. December 23 before vaccination, after nine months of epidemic, the United Arab Emirates had 642 deaths attributed to Covid-19. In two months post-vaccination, this figure doubled to 1,182 (+ 100%).
The month of February 2021, which is not over, has already set the monthly mortality record (360), alone accounting for 30% of all deaths since the start of the epidemic in this country.
Vaccination, far from reducing the lethal risk of the disease, seems on the contrary to have exacerbated it!
Concern for the future of sales
These considerable and simultaneous increases in daily mortality from deaths in the three vaccination champion countries for the 2 months following vaccination are very worrying. They confirm that conditional marketing authorizations for vaccines were rushed and premature.
Hope in vaccines sparked market optimism and big rises in manufacturers’ stock prices when their products were cleared for sale. Since then, despite intense communication extolling the effectiveness of vaccines, taking into account its paradoxical results has caused concern and the prices of Pfizer and Astra-Zeneca have fallen.
This confirms a finding from one of my colleagues:
“To assess the results of a new treatment, I no longer trust scientific articles from major medical journals; I prefer to follow the evolution of the manufacturer’s share price. “
1 Analysis of the results of the anti-Covid19 vaccination in Israel as of February 23, 2021 – Nouveau Monde (nouveau-monde.ca)
3 UK vaccination report on day 75 – Nouveau Monde (nouveau-monde.ca)