Activity in France experienced a significant rebound in the second quarter, according to the Banque de France, which revised its growth estimates upwards. And for the year as a whole, the institution’s forecasts remain higher than those of the government.
In the second quarter, French growth should do better than expected. According to the latest note on the situation from the Banque de France, the increase in gross domestic product will stand at 1%, which is double what the institution expected. The gradual end of the various health restrictions helped accelerate activity, which rebounded better than expected last month. ” June is better than companies expected », Explained the CEO of the Banque de France, Olivier Garnier. In fact, activity is improving in most sectors of industry and is growing strongly in market services, notes the monthly business survey.
The rebound is very marked in accommodation and food services for the month of June. The first sector displays a level of activity which reached 53% of that it was before the health crisis, that is to say 20 points more than in May. In catering, activity is 70% of that of 2019, against 25% in May. Overall, activity is still a notch below what it was before the outbreak of the epidemic: -2% in June. This is better than the forecast of -3% from the Banque de France, and also better than the -4% for the month of May.
A more optimistic annual estimate than that of the government
However, the Banque de France points to the difficulties of recruitment and supply in certain sectors, such as industry and construction. It is in the automobile that these difficulties are most sensitive, 80% of companies are concerned. The institution maintains its growth forecast for 2021, which should stand at 5.75%. The government is still stuck on its estimate of 5%, while INSEE and the European Commission are forecasting GDP growth of 6%.