The global thirst for chips could last until 2023

Semiconductor chips – an essential input for industries, from manufacturing gaming equipment, washing machines, and alarm clocks – will still be “thirsty” for supply until 2023.

Industry “commanders” in the US have warned of serious consequences caused by the shortage of global chips. Photo: AFP

Semiconductor chip supplies have been in short supply for months and the situation shows no sign of abating, prompting insiders to visualize it into the chipageddon crisis. It is a combination of ‘microchip’ (semiconductor chip) and ‘armageddon’ (which excessively means war of destruction).

Mr. Glenn O’Donnell, deputy research director at consulting firm Forrester believes that the thirst for semiconductor chips could last until 2023. “As demand will continue to increase while supply will remain limited, We expect this shortfall to continue into 2022 and into 2023, “commented Glenn O’Donnell on his blog.

According to the expert’s argument, demand for computers – products using the most advanced chips – will slightly decrease next year but not by much, but data centers, where the machines are located. will be the chip-eaters next year.

Mr. Glenn O’Donnell explained: “The deviceization of things is an irresistible trend, coupled with the continued growth of cloud computing and cryptocurrency mining, we see nothing but a boom. short-term explosion on chip demand “.

Meanwhile, Mr. Patrick Armstrong, Information Technology Director of Plurimi Investment Managers Fund commented on CNBC that the global shortage of chips will last 18 months. “Not just the auto industry. It’s the phone. It’s also the IoE [một khái niệm kết nối rộng hơn Internet vạn vật (IoT), xoay quanh 4 yếu tố chính: Con người (People), sự vật (Things), dữ liệu (Data) và quá trình (Process)]. There are a lot more chips that use chips now than they used to be. “” All of them are connected to the internet, “said Patrick Armstrong.

The auto industry has been most adversely affected by the global thirst for chips. Earlier this month, the world’s largest chip maker TSMC (Taiwan) said it could meet the chip demand of the auto industry next June. However, Mr. Armstrong said that this statement by TSMC is too ambitious.

“If you listen to Ford, BMW, and Volkswagen, they all claim that there are bottlenecks in capacity and they can’t get the chips needed to build new cars,” Armstrong argued.

Meanwhile, Gartner Consulting and Information Technology Research is more optimistic that chip shortages will last throughout 2021, affecting all chip lines and pushing chip prices higher.

Gartner analyst Alan Priestley said that chip shortages could improve in some sectors / areas over the next six months, but could continue into 2022. “It (chip shortage – Editor)) will not last any longer, “said Alan Priestley. “The semiconductor industry is increasing capacity, but it still takes time,” he said.

In fact, in March Intel announced plans to spend $ 20 billion on two new chip factories in Arizona. The group also said it could build a factory in Europe if it could raise funds for public investment.

“Those things will take two or three years before we start realizing their effect,” said Alan Priestley, who said that the investment plans could actually meet demand for semiconductors in future.

Mr. Reinhard Ploss, CEO of chip maker Infineon (Germany) last week said that the semiconductor industry is in the region without privileges; at the same time warned to rebalance the demand and supply of semiconductors “is obviously going to take time”.

“I think two years is too long, but we are sure that the current situation will extend into 2022,” said Ploss. “I think the additional capacity will be realized… Hopefully the situation will be more balanced in the next calendar year,” added the German CEO.

Wenzhe Zhao, director of the global strategy and economics division at Credit Suisse, said that the shortage in chip supply led to speculation on chip-making hoarding and widening the gap. amid increasing chip demand and supply remains stagnant.

According to Wenzhe Zhao, the new semiconductor manufacturing capacity will not be effective until 2022 or later. He Wenzhe Zhao noted, There are few things that can be done to deal with a shortage of semiconductor chips, aside from adjusting orders, production schedules and prices.