It is very unlikely that this crisis will end on May 15 at 3:30 p.m. precisely, the time of D-Day and H hour when we could take off our masks, party and return to our life before.
For such an event to occur, the virus would have to be eradicated, at the same time, everywhere on our planet.
For this to happen, we must analyze the strategies we use to achieve it and study the results that these strategies achieve.
Everything is based on vaccination.
As I have already had the opportunity to say and write, I am neither for nor against vaccination, on the contrary! In analytical terms, the problem does not arise in this way but rather in the following way “can vaccination be the solution”? For the moment our only strategy is mostly mRNA vaccination.
And it is a race against time between a virus which mutates very regularly, which rages on the whole planet and our capacities to produce vaccines and to inject them to all as quickly as possible.
Let’s imagine and postulate two things.
Let’s imagine that mRNA vaccines are perfectly safe (I said imagine) and imagine that they are perfectly effective (I said imagine).
How long will it take to vaccinate the entire world population, everywhere with two doses?
During this period of time the virus will be able to mutate how many times?
I can give you two answers.
It will take at least two years to vaccinate the whole world.
During this time the virus mutates at a biologically significant minimum every 15 days, either overall 26 times a year, or 52 times over this period of time, and this is a minimum, because in Brazil, we are far ahead of the curve. mutations where the P1 variants are of great concern, while the P1 seems very friendly compared to… P4!
The example of Israel.
Today’s bad news comes from Israel, where the latest data shows beyond a shadow of a doubt that the South African variant is already capable of breaking through the defenses induced by the Pfizer vaccine. Source Times of Israel here
Israeli data shows a South African variant capable of “breaking through” the Pfizer vaccine.
“The South African variant of the coronavirus is significantly more adept at ‘breaking through’ the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine than other variants, Israeli scientists have found in a unique real-world data-based study.
Israel has used the Pfizer vaccine almost exclusively to immunize millions of citizens, with a version of Moderna, based on similar innovative mRNA technology, used minimally.
A team from Tel Aviv University and healthcare organization Clalit sequenced samples from 150 Israelis who tested positive for COVID-19 despite having been vaccinated.
In their study, the prevalence of the South African strain among vaccinated individuals who were infected despite their inoculation was eight times higher than its prevalence in the unvaccinated infected population. Although the number of these infections among the vaccinated is relatively low, the results indicate that this variant succeeds much more in crossing the defenses of the vaccinated individuals than the other strains.
“Based on general population trends, we would have expected a single case of the South African variant, but we saw eight,” Professor Adi Stern, who led the research, told The Times of Israel. “Obviously, this result did not make me happy.”
She said the results show that the South African variant, compared to the original strain and the British variant, “is able to break the protection of the vaccine.” However, she said the sample size is too small to give a figure on its increased capacity.
“We can say it’s less effective, but more research is needed to determine exactly how much,” she said.
Professor Ran Balicer, director of research at Clalit, said the study was “very important”.
“It is the first in the world to be based on real world data, showing that the vaccine is less effective against the South African variant, compared to both the original virus and the British variant,” said he declared.
Balicer added that the findings call for continued vigilance against the coronavirus, including social distancing and wearing masks in indoor spaces, to prevent infection.
“These preliminary results require sustained and continued attention to the dissemination of this strain in Israel, highlighting the need for epidemiological surveillance and systematic sequencing, in order to contain the spread of the South African variant in Israel,” said he declared ”.
The vaccine is effective but …
Be careful, this article which relates this Israeli scientific study does not say that the Pfizer vaccine does not work.
This study shows that when there are people vaccinated but still sick, in limited numbers, they are more often affected by the South African variant. The study logically concludes that it is this over-represented variant that has the strongest ability to bypass the Pfizer vaccine.
The case of Israel, a small country that has vaccinated almost its entire population, is an example given to the rest of the world.
If for the moment the situation begins to improve between a massive vaccination and a compulsory health passport for all daily activities of life, we can see the feverishness including the health authorities.
However, what was possible on the scale of the Hebrew State is not already possible in France.
To imagine for a second that this is possible on the scale of Brazil, or of India, is in my opinion an analytical error.
We will therefore have to live for many years, at least with closed borders for a very long time, or resolve to more or less regular and random periods of confinement over the various mutations and their associated dangerousness.
It will be haphazard and unpredictable.
This will therefore change everything, change the way the world works, our uses, and our access to different resources.
It is already too late, but all is not lost. Prepare yourselves !