To win Biden, Trump will be much harder than the 2016 election season


To win Biden, Trump will be much harder than the 2016 election season

The US presidential election day November 3 is approaching and former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the incumbent President Donald Trump in the results of national polls and in battlefield states.

If he wants to win Biden and has a second presidency in the White House, Donald Trump (right) will have to struggle to earn more electoral votes than the 2016 election. Photo: AFP

However, some opinions have denied the above poll results because they do not believe in such polls, for example, the poll results are not as accurate as the 2016 election season.

If he wants to win Biden and stay in the White House for a second term, Trump will have to fight harder to get electoral votes than the 2016 election.

There aren’t many plausible forecasts right now, but there’s no denying the obvious fact that Trump is in a much worse position than it was before the 2016 presidential election.

Referring the results of voter polls in the fluctuating states, especially in all states where Hillary Clinton had won over Trump in 2016, Biden is also ahead of Trump, but by more than 5 points.

Biden is also ahead of Trump in a series of locations Trump won in the 2016 election season, including: Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania, Arizona, 2nd Congressional District of Maine, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa.

If he wins in all of the states above, Biden will accumulate 357 electoral votes, while the sure win condition is only over 270 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes in these potential states is limited, and Biden is holding an advantage over Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska and Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District by a gap of 5 points or more.

Even if Biden only wins states where the former Vice President was 5 points or more ahead of Trump, Biden will still pass the required 270 electoral votes, which is not easy for Clinton in election season 2016.

More interestingly, if you look at the margin of error in the 2016 US presidential election. The biggest error is in the “Rust Belt”, where the error is usually much smaller than “. Sun Belt “(Sun Belt).

Nate Cohn, a New York Times electoral reporter, said that Biden would get more than 300 electoral votes if the 2016 election season error recurs exactly this year. Even if the error is not quite like 2016, Biden will still beat Trump by big gaps in some key states.

It is very likely that the 2020 election year errors will not go well for Trump. In the history of US elections, there has been very little correlation in poll error from year to year. Looking at the national voter poll results, Biden has a lot more advantage than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden is 9-10 points ahead of Trump in the national voter poll, while the moment In 2016, Mrs. Clinton only kept a distance of 3-4 points from Trump.

It should be noted that the largest fluctuation of error in the US election will be in the battlefield states, where Biden is expected to make a difference of 5 points more than the distance Mrs. Clinton made with Trump. 2016. Although each battlefield state has its own characteristics, these states are often not separated in the election.

Some electoral experts believe that the results of voter polls in each state may be unreliable, but at the national level, it often sends the final results. Previous calculations showed that Trump might not win the Electoral College if he lost 4-5 points to Biden in the national election, but Trump would be favored if the difference between the two candidates was less than 3 points. .

Things are not over for Trump, but to have a second presidency at the White House, the incumbent “boss” will need a much larger probe error compared to four years ago.

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