Global growth will be doing well in 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund which published, on April 6, 2021, new growth prospects, revised upwards at the global level. Quite the opposite of Bruno Le Maire who, for his part, has revised downwards the forecasts for France … because of the third confinement.
Global growth at 6% thanks to the USA
While at the beginning of January 2021, the IMF forecast growth of 5.5% at the global level, still subject to the vagaries of the Covid-19 pandemic, the institution is more optimistic on April 6, 2021 with an estimate raised from 0.5% to 6%. Good news that the world owes above all to the policies of Joe Biden: his $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan and the massive distribution of vaccines that exploded the targets should allow the country to see its economy grow by 6.4% in 2021, This is 1.3% more than the latest IMF forecasts and the best performance for nearly 30 years.
For all emerging countries, growth should be 6.7% in 2021, driven by China (8.4%) and by the incredible rebound of the Indian economy which, after suffering a drop of 8% in 2020, is expected to experience 12.5% growth in 2021 to offset the recession of the previous year.
The last of the economic zones, the euro zone, with growth of 4.4% in 2021 and which should not return to its pre-crisis level before the end of 2022.
Bercy is more pessimistic than the IMF
The economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund for France contrast, however, with the remarks of Bruno Le Maire of the Easter weekend. The latter revised downwards France’s growth forecast to 5% in 2021, because of the cost (nearly 11 billion euros in aid, among others) of the third general confinement of the population which led to the closure of 150,000 shops.
The IMF, for its part, maintains its forecast of 5.8% for France, without it being possible to know whether it took into account the confinement, announced just days before the publication of these new perspectives.