France, like the rest of the European Union, is accumulating delays on vaccination: the objectives set seem more and more complicated to achieve… and this is not the fault of governments. It is the shortage of vaccine doses, caused by pharmaceutical companies, that is at the center of the problem. But it is for European economies that it will cost dearly.
France loses 3 billion euros of GDP per week of delay
Nothing is yet definitively lost, the vaccination could undergo a major acceleration as soon as the doses are available, in particular in April 2021 with the arrival of the first doses of the Janssen vaccine which, moreover, does not require a booster … but nothing n ‘is less certain.
The Euler Hermes firm therefore attempted to analyze the cost to European economies of the situation, assuming that the cumulative delay will not be made up in time. For France, the bill is steep: highly dependent on tourism, stopped because of the pandemic, it will lose 3 billion euros of GDP for each week behind the vaccination targets.
As a reminder: the European Union has set a target of a vaccination rate of its population of 70% by the end of the summer … but such a level, without accelerating the distribution of doses, would only be reached. ‘at the end of the year.
Seven weeks late, according to Euler Hermes, and a total cost of 123 billion euros
The cabinet had already calculated this cost, which has not changed in practice: it is increasing because the vaccination is more and more late. Each week of delay costs 17.5 billion euros to all the economies of the European Union. And now, the cumulative delay is estimated at 7 weeks, against 5 weeks in the cabinet’s previous calculation published in February 2021.
So, this is already 123 billion euros lost for the European economy by 2021, if the delay is not made up, and therefore 21 billion for the French economy alone.