Wall Street Journal: The US job market cannot recover before 2023
The latest survey of economic experts published by the Wall Street Journal on October 8 shows that the US labor market will not be able to fully recover before 2023.
|Delivery staff worked in New York, USA on April 13, 2020 in the context of widespread COVID-19 epidemic. Photo: THX / TTXVN|
The latest survey of economists published by the Wall Street Journal on October 8 shows that the US labor market will not be able to fully recover before 2023 in the context of an epidemic of inflammation of the respiratory tract. The issuance of COVID-19 due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still rampant and the prospect of another bailout package is uncertain.
More than 50% of economists surveyed said they did not expect the labor market to restore jobs to pre-COVID-19 levels earlier than 2023 or even longer. more than that. The number of people with new jobs is now less while many workers are on leave due to the pandemic completely losing their jobs, showing that the US economy is facing a situation that is difficult to fully recover from the pandemic.
Data from the US Department of Labor shows that in September 2020, the US reduced nearly 11 million jobs compared to February 2020. Nearly 4 million jobs in the entertainment and hospitality industries disappeared as soon as the COVID-19 epidemic broke out. Economic experts believe that the recovery of the tourism and hotel industry will be slower than previously forecast because the rate of infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to increase.
According to chief economist Joseph Brusuelas of market research firm RSM US, the damage to service-sector employment will last and many people will face long-term unemployment that increases visibility. job schools rebounding to February 2020 levels will be even more delayed.
In a survey in April 2020, economists said that the US job market will recover to the level of February 2020 in more than 2 years, ie around the third quarter of 2022. However, in this latest survey, only 34.7% of economists surveyed still believe that the speed of recovery is maintained while 42.9% of experts say the market cannot fully recover. before 2023 and even 12.2% of experts think that the labor market will not recover until 2030.
The main reason for this is because the COVID-19 crisis is worsening and now as the flu season approaches, the United States and the world in general still do not have an effective vaccine, not to mention the variables. action around the upcoming US presidential election.
Economists polled view the upcoming election will bring more volatility than usual, with 8% saying that this year’s election will create more volatility in financial markets than all. have elected another president in recent decades.
Up to 73.2% of economists believe that the upcoming election will cause many unpredictable things for the economy. More than half of experts surveyed (57.4%) said that US economic output would return to the peak of the fourth quarter of 2019 after adjusting for inflation; 18.5% predict that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the US will recover to its previous peak around the first quarter of 2022.
The survey was conducted by WSJ from October 2-6 with 63 economists.