On August 31, the United States shot off the institutionalization of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (group QUAD) including the US, Australia, India, and Japan into a mechanism like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). All four of these countries are having serious problems with China.
New international contexts and new leaders, Australia and India have shown a willingness to deeply participate in QUAD as the US and Japan seek to attract countries.
On the same day that the United States opened fire about the institutionalization of QUAD, Indian and Chinese soldiers faced each other again on the land border not far from where the encounter took place that killed dozens of people in June. Nation and India both have the same side as the other.
From Canberra, the Australian Foreign Ministry on August 31 confirmed that a citizen of this country working for Chinese state media was arrested. Australia and China have previously fought on cybersecurity issues, COVID-19 epidemic origins, trade and the South China Sea.
Exchange with Youth Online, doctor Nguyen Thanh Trung – Director of the Center for International Research (SCIS) in Ho Chi Minh City – said the constant tensions between China and other countries does not necessarily stem from Beijing’s miscalculation.
“These moves are part of a plan to realize ‘Dream China’ that has been launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping. If they don’t do it in 2019-2020 then they will do it next year,” Mr. Thanh Trung explained.
“However, the more China pushes the ‘dream China’, the more it will face a strong backlash from the surrounding countries due to the continual impact on the interests of these countries. These moves could be expected. ends when the countries whose interests are harmed by Beijing are gathered together, “said the SCIS expert.
Derek Grossman, a senior analyst at RAND Organization (USA), said out of the quartet QUAD, the US is the country with the most problems with China.
So far, however, QUAD has openly opposed the definition of an anti-China rally, which Mr Grossman said has the say of the other three countries. However, according to the RAND expert, the new international context will push QUAD to the point of overtly anti-China.
According to Grossman, the publicity of the QUAD as an anti-China rally also has downside. “China will use this to propagate that the US is a regional destabilizer to warn countries. Russia is likely to cooperate more closely with China while Beijing pressures to choose sides in the Southeast. Asia and South Asia “.
In the short term, accelerating the institutionalization of QUAD and its expansion does not seem to be America’s top priority.
According to US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, while the idea is attractive, it is important that the countries move forward at the same time. The focus on consolidating QUAD only in the present stage also stems from another reason, the US election.
“If President Donald Trump is re-elected, or worst of all, he loses, the next administration or his second term will find the QUAD expansion is something worth exploring,” said the US diplomat. make an opinion.
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