WTO: Global trade will decline by 9.2% in 2020


In the latest forecast of the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade will decrease about 9.2% this year, lower than the forecast of 21.3% decline given earlier.

According to the WTO, global trade, hit hard by the COVID-19 acute respiratory epidemic crisis, will decline less than expected this year, but the recovery will also be weaker.

In the previous forecast, the WTO said that global trade would decrease by 12.9% in 2020, but in the latest forecast, this figure has now been revised to 9.2% this year. Global trade growth is also forecast at 7.2% next year, instead of 21.3% as previously forecast.

On the same day, Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva stated that the economic recession that happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic will not be as bad as it was initially feared, but the crisis is not over yet. The declaration comes at the same time as governments roll out COVID-19 support packages.

Today’s picture is less devastating, allowing a review of the slight upward trend in our global forecast for 2020. All countries are facing what I would call “Son long slope “- a difficult climb that will be long, rugged and unstable

Kristalina Georgieva

“Global trade is showing signs of recovery from the deep decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but WTO economists are cautious that any recovery could be disrupted by the current translation “, stated the WTO’s statement. WTO also warned that the outcome could be even worse if the epidemic broke out again between now and the end of the year.

Global GDP growth, according to WTO forecasts, will decline by 4.8% in 2020 before increasing 4.9% by 2021, but “depends on policy measures and severity. of the disease “.

Speaking to the media, WTO Deputy Director-General Dich Tieu Chuan said that the outbreak of the epidemic brought about new blockade orders could reduce global GDP growth by 2-3 percentage points, and “rob go “4 percentage point growth in merchandise trade by 2021.

Mr. Dich Tieu Chuan also added that trade plays an important role in coping with disease, allowing countries to ensure access to supplies of food and medicine. In addition, he warned that “one of the biggest dangers of the global economy after the pandemic will be the development of protectionism”.

According to the WTO, the rapid formulation of an effective vaccine against COVID-19 could increase confidence and spur growth by 1 to 2 percentage points by 2021, and will increase by 3 percentage points for growth. Commerce.

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